In the run-up to its annual press conference in December, the VDMA conducted a survey on the US export market. With the start of Donald Trump’s presidency in January 2025, the mechanical and plant engineering industry must also prepare for new turbulence in US business. “The Trump 2.0 era will almost certainly be more disruptive than the first term. We are prepared for more disruption, but believe that the US market will continue to offer opportunities for us,” said VDMA President Bertram Kawlath.

He also referred to a recent VDMA survey of 560 member companies:
– According to the survey, most companies (72 percent) want to expand their US business or start doing so. There are three main reasons for this: Market size (89 percent), growing market (72 percent), proximity to customers (61 percent).
– Around half (51 percent) of the companies planning to intensify their US business would like to do so in the form of production or assembly.
– US import tariffs of 10 to 20 percent on all imports would have a strong (49 percent) or very strong (19 percent) impact on the competitiveness of companies

“We must expect America’s confrontation with China to intensify during Donald Trump’s second term in office. We see fierce competition for supremacy in the world, which China wants to have decided in its favor by 2049. The mechanical engineering companies in Germany and Europe absolutely must prepare for this exchange of blows,” warned Kawlath. However: “In order to drive forward the reindustrialization of America, the country will continue to need important capital goods from Europe and Asia. We see this as an opportunity in the long term,” he added.

With a view to China, the mechanical and plant engineering industry is facing increasingly fierce competition – including on third markets. This is also supported by government intervention, which distorts competition. “In general, Chinese companies are offering their products at incomprehensible prices in many sectors. In our competition study on China from July 2024, we showed that there are numerous subsidies for mechanical engineering companies at all levels in China. We are clearly demanding that German and European policymakers do not let up and insist on compliance with WTO rules. This also means that Chinese violations of competition law should be countered with WTO-compliant measures,” emphasized the VDMA President.

For German industry, China’s aggressive trade and competition policy means that a de-risking strategy will be essential for future business success. German and European mechanical engineering companies are currently reassessing risks due to the current geopolitical circumstances and experiences. Kawlath explained that there cannot be a blueprint for everyone, as the mechanical and plant engineering industry is structured very differently and pursues a wide variety of business models. “However, it must be questioned to what extent a pure export model from Germany or Europe to China can still be sustainable. In many cases, this will probably no longer be enough to ensure the future viability of the company on the Chinese market,” he warned.

Even if the government crises in Europe and the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are currently dominating political events, “the major challenge of getting climate change under control remains as urgent as ever,” emphasized the VDMA President. “The climate transformation is and remains a global question of fate – and offers a great opportunity for the mechanical and, above all, plant engineering industry.”

Kawlath praised the decision taken at the recent Climate Change Conference (COP29) in Baku to create the basis for a global market for emission reductions. This has the potential to make climate protection more cost-effective worldwide and to roll out technologies more quickly globally. “But the system still needs a lot of work. That is why we are making a clear appeal: the new German government and the new EU Commission must simplify climate protection and the energy transition and organize them in a more market-oriented way,” said the VDMA President. “However, seizing global opportunities and building and maintaining value creation in Germany and Europe will only work if the EU is not made the global benchmark. We need pragmatic approaches and solutions at all levels.”